The Dealflow by Founders Capital - Edition 18

Key News and Trends

Turns out the market really does love a good bet. Prediction markets are entering the mainstream: Kalshi recently raised a major round as its annual trading volume topped billions in event contracts, while Polymarket is currently raising around $200 million at a $1 billion valuation and saw nearly 16 million visits in May with over $1 billion in monthly volume. Wall Street is increasingly tapping these platforms for live sentiment and forecasting insights. Read more here.

Judges: AI can borrow your plot. Two major legal wins this week bolstered the AI industry’s fair use defence. A judge dismissed authors’ claims against Meta, ruling that training AI on copyrighted books can qualify as fair use, though noting a better-argued case might succeed. A day earlier, Anthropic also prevailed in a similar suit, with the court allowing most of its model training but flagging use of pirated books as potentially infringing. Read more here.

Underpriced? Just by a casual 675%. Circle soared 675% post-IPO, reigniting criticism of underpricing - especially given its $1B+ in “lost” proceeds had pricing been closer to market demand. While some argue the pop boosts morale and investor confidence, others say it’s a sign the IPO system still favours bankers over issuers. Circle’s crypto buzz and stablecoin legislation tailwind may make it an outlier, but the debate is back just as more listings loom. Read more here.

Founder’s Take: Welcome to the Trillion-Dollar Lottery

Thinking Machines Lab just broke the record for the largest seed round ever: $2B raised at a $10B valuation. That’s absolutely wild - and yet nobody’s pretending these companies are de-risked.

What’s clear is that AI has fundamentally transformed productivity and potential outcomes. So the question is: does that justify a new normal?

We’re not necessarily going to see more survivors. But we might see more trillion-dollar companies. The boom scenario is now so much bigger than it was pre-AI that it’s reshaping how investors think. Proportionally, there may still be the same number of failures - but the upside is orders of magnitude greater.

And if that’s the case, does the entry even matter?

Top Venture Deals

Thinking Machines Lab  –  $2B Seed (Andreessen Horowitz)

• Thinking Machines Lab raised a record-breaking $2 billion seed round at a $10 billion valuation, making it the largest seed deal in history. Founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, the AI startup attracted top-tier backing from Andreessen Horowitz and other major investors. Read more here.

Harvey AI –  $300M Series E (Kleiner Perkins, Coatue)

• Harvey AI raised $300 million in a Series E round at a $5 billion valuation, just four months after its previous $3 billion round. The legal automation startup now serves 337 clients, has reached $75 million in annualised revenue, and plans to double its 340-person team as it expands into adjacent sectors like tax and accounting. Read more here.

Kalshi –  $185m Series C (Paradigm)

• Kalshi, a five‑year‑old New York–based startup operating a regulated prediction market for events ranging from elections and weather to sports, has closed a $185 million Series C at a post‑money valuation of $2 billion. Read more here.

Upcoming Public Offerings

Lime

• Lime, which operates an electric bike and scooter network, has hired banks to prepare for a long-awaited U.S. IPO. Backed by Uber, the company is finally eyeing the public markets after years of speculation. Read more here.

Wealthfront

• Automated investing platform Wealthfront has confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO. Founded in 2008, the company manages over $85 billion in assets across 1M+ accounts. It offers services like high-yield cash, direct stock investing, and bond ladders, and previously scrapped a planned acquisition by UBS to remain independent. Read more here.

See you in the next edition,
Sam Scott and the Founders Capital Team