The Dealflow by Founders Capital - Edition 28

Key News and Trends

Nvidia Bets $5B on Intel After China Ban

Nvidia announced a surprise $5B stake in Intel, alongside a partnership to co-develop AI chips. The move, which sent Intel shares up 30%, comes just a day after China ordered its tech giants to stop buying Nvidia hardware. Analysts see the investment as both a supply-chain hedge and a geopolitical play: by anchoring more production in the U.S., Nvidia strengthens its position in Western markets while bracing for lost Chinese demand. For Intel, the tie-up is a rare lifeline, bolstering its relevance in the AI era. Read more here.

China Grounds Nvidia’s AI Chip Sales: A Silicon Curtain Falls

Beijing has ordered domestic tech giants to stop buying AI chips from Nvidia, citing national security and “indigenous innovation” priorities. The move blocks access to Nvidia’s H20 chips, already crippled for export, and accelerates China’s push for homegrown silicon. For Nvidia, it’s a painful hit to one of its largest growth markets. For China, it’s a bet that Huawei and SMIC can fill the gap fast enough. Read more here.

OpenAI’s Microsoft Tab Shrinks to 8% Revenue Share

OpenAI will cut the revenue slice owed to Microsoft and other partners from 20% today to ~8% by 2030. That translates into $50B+ in future cash flow that stays in OpenAI’s pocket, assuming its $500B valuation hold up. The pair also signed a non-binding deal paving the way for OpenAI’s for-profit restructuring. The real twist: OpenAI still owes Microsoft billions for server rentals, a tension that could define their next chapter. Read more here.

Alphabet Joins the $3 Trillion Club - No Breakup Required

Alphabet’s market cap crossed $3T after a U.S. judge opted for mild antitrust remedies instead of forcing Google to sell Chrome. Investors cheered the softer stance, pushing the stock higher and cementing Alphabet alongside Nvidia ($4.3T), Microsoft ($3.8T), and Apple ($3.5T) in the “trillionaire” tech elite. The DOJ blinked, and Wall Street rewarded it, for now. Read more here.

Founder’s Take: Nvidia’s China Ban Meets Intel’s $5B Bailout

Beijing’s decision to block domestic firms from buying Nvidia chips was already a body blow. Now Nvidia has answered by buying a $5B stake in Intel, sending Intel stock up 30% overnight. On paper, this is a “strategic collaboration” around AI chip production. In practice, it looks like Nvidia hedging its bets.

Here’s the dynamic: China shuts the door, Nvidia leans harder into U.S. industrial policy and shores up its Western supply chain. Intel has fabs, Nvidia has demand, and both are aligned against the risk of a fractured global market. But the timing is hard to ignore, one day China cuts off access, the next Nvidia pours billions into a domestic rival. That feels like a geopolitical hedge as much as a business deal.

For Nvidia, the risk is clear: valuation has been built on infinite global GPU demand. Losing China narrows that moat. Buying Intel buys goodwill, capacity, and a political narrative, “we’re building America’s AI backbone.” The question is whether that’s enough to offset the loss of one of the world’s largest growth markets. For now, Wall Street is buying the story. Whether that lasts depends on whether Huawei can really step up fast enough.

Top Venture Deals

Groq: $750M Raise at $6.9B Valuation (Disruptive, BlackRock, Neuberger Berman, Deutsche Telekom, Samsung, Cisco, Altimeter)

• AI chipmaker Groq secured $750M at a $6.9B valuation, topping earlier reports of a ~$600M raise. The company, known for its “Language Processing Units” (LPUs), pitches its inference engine as a cheaper, faster alternative to Nvidia GPUs. Groq now powers apps for over 2M developers, up from 356k last year, and has raised over $3B to date. Proceeds will fund scaling of both its on-prem hardware clusters and cloud inference services, as demand for non-Nvidia compute surges. Read more here.

Divergent Technologies: $290M Raise at $2.3B Valuation (Rochefort Asset Management, others)

• L.A.-based Divergent, originally an automotive parts manufacturer, closed a $290M round to expand into defence tech. Now valued at $2.3B, the company produces missile airframes and other systems for clients including Lockheed Martin, RTX, and General Atomics. Proceeds will fund new U.S. factories (starting in Oklahoma) and development of advanced 3-D printing for hypersonic weapons, underscoring the surge in VC interest for defence manufacturing. Read more here.

Conceivable Life Sciences: $50M Series A (Advance Venture Partners, ARTIS, Stride, ACME)

• New York-based Conceivable secured $50M to commercialise AURA, the world’s first automated IVF lab platform. Using robotics and AI to standardise 200+ IVF steps, the system reduces outcome variability and capacity bottlenecks. Early trials have yielded 18 healthy births, and a 100-patient U.S. pilot is underway. Funding supports a 2026 U.S. launch and partnerships with major fertility networks as global IVF demand is projected to 10x. Read more here.

Upcoming Public Offerings

Verisure

• Private equity–backed Verisure, Europe’s leading home alarm provider, announced plans to raise €3.1B in a Stockholm IPO, implying an enterprise value north of €20B. Backed by Hellman & Friedman since 2011, Verisure generated €1.8B in H1 revenue (+10% YoY). Proceeds will reduce debt and fund expansion in Europe and Latin America, marking one of Europe’s largest listings in recent years. Read more here.

StubHub

• Ticket resale platform StubHub priced its IPO at $23.50 per share, within guidance, raising ~$800M and valuing the company at $8.6B. CEO Eric Baker retains ~88% voting control post-listing. StubHub, founded in 2000 and reacquired from eBay in 2020, trades under the ticker STUB. Investors are eyeing upside from direct ticket sales after its MLB deal. Read more here.

See you in the next edition,
The Founders Capital Team

Founders Capital is the trading name of FC Group Holding Ltd. FC Group Holding Ltd is an Appointed Representative of 8point8 Capital Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (reg. no. 936586). 

This communication is being sent confidentially on a restricted basis for information and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute a financial promotion and should not be relied upon as investment advice. Membership of Founders Capital is restricted to recipients who are eligible to receive exempt financial promotions under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005.