The Dealflow by Founders Capital - Edition 8

Key News and Trends

When the platform starts buying up the stack, the founders who win are the ones who built beyond it. OpenAI is in advanced talks to acquire Windsurf for over $3 billion, in what would be its biggest acquisition yet. The AI coding assistant has quickly won over developers, and with rivals like Cursor and Replit on the rise, OpenAI is doubling down on locking in top apps built atop its models. Read more here.

Turns out “move fast and break things” applies to antitrust law, and maybe your M&A exit strategy too. The FTC’s long-awaited antitrust case against Meta kicked off this week, targeting its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp. Regulators argue Meta used the deals to crush competition, now owning 78% of the “personal social networks” market. Meta hits back, saying rivals like TikTok and YouTube prove otherwise. With Zuckerberg defending the moves as visionary bets, the case could redefine the M&A playbook for Big Tech. Read more here.

The U.S. just handed Nvidia a supply chain headache - and private markets a hardware roadmap. Nvidia is bracing for a $5.5B revenue hit as new U.S. export restrictions block sales of its H20 AI chips to China. Meanwhile, the chip giant has pledged to build AI supercomputers entirely in the US, with production anchored in Arizona and Texas. Though announced before the latest crackdown, the move now carries heavy geopolitical weight - signaling a deeper tech decoupling as America races to secure its AI supply chain and catalyse the next wave of infrastructure investment closer to home. Read more here.

While the Fed stays put, the ECB’s rate cut could fuel more cross-border deals and boost private market activity in Europe. The European Central Bank trimmed interest rates by 25bps this week, bringing its deposit rate to 2.25% - the seventh cut in a year. It’s a notable signal for global allocators: Europe is loosening while the Fed holds steady. That divergence could shift capital flows, boost cross-border deal activity, and soften borrowing costs for eurozone-based companies. Read more here.

Founder’s Take: Can You Build a Defensible Business on Someone Else’s Model?

OpenAI’s $3B bid for Windsurf could mark the start of a new phase in the AI platform wars, where model providers stop waiting for breakout apps to emerge and simply buy them. Windsurf, a fast-scaling coding assistant built entirely on GPT, now looks poised to be absorbed back into the very platform it depends on. If that feels like platform risk in action, it is.

The strategic logic is clear: foundational model companies don’t just want to power the ecosystem, they want to own the highest-leverage touchpoints with users. For founders building on someone else’s model, that raises the bar: clever UX or distribution won’t cut it. To stay independent, you need something OpenAI can’t replicate - like unique data, new interaction layers, or deeply integrated product loops.

And as the FTC sharpens its teeth on the Meta case, this won’t just be a founder play, it could turn into the next big antitrust flashpoint.

Top Venture Deals

Science Corp. – $104M  (Khosla Ventures)

• Science Corp., a neurotech startup founded by Neuralink co-founder Max Hodak, has raised over $100 million in a round led by Khosla Ventures. The Alameda-based company is developing a retina implant to treat eye diseases, alongside a brain implant system targeting broader neurological applications. Read more here.

Safe Superintelligence – $2B (Greenoaks)

• At the tail end of last week, Safe Superintelligence (SSI), the stealth-mode AI startup founded by former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, raised $2 billion in a round led by Greenoaks. The raise values the company at $32 billion, despite having no product. Sutskever left OpenAI last year following internal tensions with CEO Sam Altman. Read more here.

Marshmallow –  $90M (Portage Capital)

• UK-based insurtech Marshmallow has raised $90 million at a valuation north of $2 billion. The startup, which provides car insurance tailored to immigrants and underserved groups, now covers over 1 million drivers and is operating at a profitable $500 million annual revenue run rate. Read more here.

Upcoming Public Offerings

Figma

• Figma has filed confidential IPO papers with the SEC, signalling renewed exit intent after its $20B acquisition by Adobe was scrapped in the wake of anti-trust concerns. The San Francisco-based design software firm last raised at a $12.5B valuation in April 2024. While the filing is a step toward going public, the road to listing is far from guaranteed. Read more here.

Kodiak

• Kodiak, a seven-year-old autonomous trucking startup headquartered in Mountain View, CA, is set to go public through a SPAC merger that values the company at $2.5 billion. Read more here.

See you in the next edition,
Sam Scott and the Founders Capital Team