The Spotlight by Founders Capital - Edition 11

What We’re Reading

Buffett’s Big Bet 2.0 - Financial Times

Seventeen years on from their famous wager, Ted Seides is challenging Buffett again - this time with private equity vs. the S&P 500. Despite PE’s structural advantages like leverage and control, Seides gives it just a 40% chance of net outperformance, reigniting the debate over fees, alpha, and whether PE is worth the premium.

Tech venture firms deploy private equity “roll‑up” strategy - Financial Times

Tech-focused venture firms are adopting a classic private equity move: the roll-up. By combining smaller startups in fragmented markets, they’re creating larger, more competitive players with clearer paths to exit.

JPMorgan pushes into private company coverage as Wall Street eyes growing opportunity - Business Insider

JPMorgan is launching equity research on private companies, starting with OpenAI. With firms now staying private for a median of 10.7 years, well beyond the historical average, investors can no longer afford to ignore what happens before the IPO.

Must-Listen Podcasts

A Mind‑Bending Conversation with Peter Thiel - Hard Fork

Peter Thiel joins Hard Fork for a wide-ranging conversation on why he believes society has entered an age of stagnation, despite breakthroughs in AI. He argues that we've lost our appetite for bold, long-term innovation, pointing to space, longevity, and machine intelligence as areas where ambition has shrunk.

Replit CEO Amjad Masad: Coding Agents, Autonomy, and the Future of Work – Y Combinator Startup Podcast

Replit’s CEO joins Y Combinator to discuss how AI coding agents are shifting software from engineers to everyone. As Replit crosses $100M ARR, he explains how autonomous tools are redefining who builds, how fast, and what work even looks like.

Founders Capital Perspective

If you’re enjoying this newsletter and want to stay on the pulse, make sure to read our weekly private market trends newsletter - The Dealflow by Founders Capital. Last week we explored whether celebrity-led VC’s have gone too far, and, as always, shared our insights and perspective.

Research & Resources

State of Venture Q2’25 report - CB Insights

CB Insights’ State of Venture Q2’25 report reveals a market at odds with itself: funding topped $90B for the third straight quarter, hitting $94.6B, even as deal count fell to the lowest level since 2016 with just 6,028 rounds. Capital is consolidating fast, with nearly 60% of dollars going into $100M+ mega-rounds. Hard tech accounted for six of the ten largest deals, while AI companies continued to command funding premiums across nearly every sector, from enterprise to healthcare, highlighting how investor conviction is coalescing around durable, defensible tech.

Despite the flood of capital, structural cracks are emerging. CVC deals dropped to a seven-year low, as tariff threats and geopolitical pressure forced many corporates to retrench. Meanwhile, the U.S. still leads in total capital deployed ($68.7B), but Asia and Europe saw notable pullbacks. With M&A cooling and late-stage deals absorbing most of the capital, CB’s report provides a sharp lens into a bifurcated market, one that’s cash-rich but increasingly selective.

Last week we asked you: Emergent misalignment: A real risk or research edge case?

The most popular response was: “(C) Risks are real but manageable”

Beyond the Boardroom

Employee Stress Is a Business Risk—Not an HR Problem – HBR

Chronic stress quietly chips away at performance, decision-making, and retention. This HBR piece introduces the “Stress Risk Thermometer,” a practical tool for leaders to measure and manage team stress with the same urgency as any other operational risk. It’s a reminder that what’s happening emotionally inside teams has real strategic consequences.

The Best Leaders Encourage “Spacious Thinking” – HBR, Megan Reitz & John Higgins

In fast-paced organisations, the best leaders aren’t the ones with the quickest answers, but the ones who make space to ask better questions. In HBR, Megan Reitz and John Higgins argue for “spacious thinking”, a leadership style that slows the rush to action and opens up room for reflection, experimentation, and rediscovery of purpose. It’s a compelling case for stepping back to move forward.

Like what you see? Think we missed anything? Let us know and we will check it out ahead of the next edition.